U.S. and U.K. Interest Rates 1890 - 1934: New Evidence on Structural Breaks

This paper presents econometric evidence on whether the founding of the Federal Reserve in 1914 caused a structural change from level-stationarity to difference-stationarity in U.S. and U.K. short-term nominal interest rates. We develop new econometric tests that allow for parameter transitions to test for a break of this kind and undertake a grid search analysis of dates and speeds for the change. We find that U.S. nominal interest rates most likely evolved rapidly to difference-stationarity in June 1917. For the U.K. we fail to reject the null that U.K. interest rate series follow a difference stationary process over the entire period 1890-1934. Our analysis differs from previous research on this topic in that we take care to explore statistical uncertainty around parameter estimates, and incorporate higher order dynamics into our econometric analysis.

Rethinking project reliability using the ambidexterity and mindfulness perspectives

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to bring together two seemingly disparate bodies of literature – ambidexterity (the ability both to exploit and explore) and mindfulness – to take a fresh perspective on the management of uncertainty. The authors differentiate between “rule-based” and “mindfulness-based” reliability and explore project risk responses in environments characterised by varying degrees of uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach Five case organisations across a range of industries are used to illustrate how uncertainty may be prepared for and suitable responses activated. This also adds to the understanding of the nature of ambidexterity, which has previously been characterised primarily at the organisational level with relatively few studies looking at managerial actions and “switches” between modes. The data consist of initial survey responses to indicate the level of mindfulness under conditions of normality, followed by interviews studying particular incidents and the nature of the responses. Findings Key practices are identified that support high reliability in complex projects, with four managerial modes (“Traditional”, “Just-in-time”, “Infusion”, and “Entrepreneurial”) that emerged from the data. Practical implications The findings offer managers a practical framework to choose between different modes of reliable performance by considering the uncertainty of the environment and whether the primary driver of the work is efficiency or effectiveness. This allows managers to reflect on their own organisations and practices and identify whether their current approach is suitable. Originality/value This work offers new insight into risk responses in complex environments and shows how the mindfulness and ambidexterity literatures may be used as beneficial lenses to increase understanding. Blending these two schools also offers opportunities for future research

Atud Gabbro-Diorite Complex: Glimpse of the Cryogenian Mixing, Assimilation, Storage, and Homogenization Zone beneath the Eastern Desert of Egypt

We analysed gabbroic and dioritic rocks from the Atud igneous complex in the Eastern Desert of Egypt to understand better the formation of juvenile continental crust of the Arabian–Nubian Shield. Our results show that the rocks are the same age (U–Pb zircon ages of 694.5 ± 2.1 Ma for two diorites and 695.3 ± 3.4 Ma for one gabbronorite). These are partial melts of the mantle and related fractionates (εNd₆₉₀ = +4.2 to +7.3, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70246–0.70268, zircon δ¹⁸O ∼ +5‰). Trace element patterns indicate that Atud magmas formed above a subduction zone as part of a large and long-lived (c. 60 myr) convergent margin. Atud complex igneous rocks belong to a larger metagabbro–epidiorite–diorite complex that formed as a deep crustal mush into which new pulses of mafic magma were periodically emplaced, incorporated and evolved. The petrological evolution can be explained by fractional crystallization of mafic magma plus variable plagioclase accumulation in a mid- to lower crustal MASH zone. The Atud igneous complex shows that mantle partial melting and fractional crystallization and plagioclase accumulation were important for Cryogenian crust formation in this part of the Arabian–Nubian Shield

Thresholds and prediction models to support the sustainable management of herbivorous insects in wheat. A review

Wheat is one of the most important arable crops grown worldwide, providing a significant proportion of the daily calorific intake for countries across the globe. Wheat crops are attacked by a diverse range of herbivorous invertebrates, pests, that cause significant yield loss. It is anticipated that yield loss caused by pests will increase in response to a changing climate. Currently, these pests are primarily controlled using pesticides; however, there is an increased need for more sustainable pest management solutions. Economic thresholds represent one avenue that can support the sustainable management of pests. Briefly, thresholds are the number of pests above which there is sufficient risk of yield loss. Here, we review the economic thresholds and prediction methods available for sustainable pest management in wheat. We focus on five economically damaging pests affecting wheat crops in the UK and Europe. For each, we highlight the key period of crop risk to pest attack, identify economic thresholds, and provide an overview of current decision support models that can help estimate crop risk and advise sustainable pest management; we end by proposing areas for future improvement for each pest. Furthermore, we take a novel approach by discussing economic thresholds and their applications to sustainable pest management within the context of crop physiology and the capacity for crops to tolerate pest damage, a consideration that is often overlooked when developing pest management strategies. We use the stem-boring pest, the gout fly, as a case study and use the economic injury level equation to conduct a theoretical assessment of the appropriateness of the current gout fly threshold. This theoretical assessment indicates that wheat crops can tolerate greater gout fly damage than currently considered, and shows that by incorporating crop physiology into sustainable pest tolerance schemes we can work towards developing more appropriate physiological-based pest thresholds

Pairwise tests of purchasing power parity

Given nominal exchange rates and price data on N + 1 countries indexed by i = 0,1,2,…, N, the standard procedure for testing purchasing power parity (PPP) is to apply unit root or stationarity tests to N real exchange rates all measured relative to a base country, 0, often taken to be the U.S. Such a procedure is sensitive to the choice of base country, ignores the information in all the other cross-rates and is subject to a high degree of cross-section dependence which has adverse effects on estimation and inference. In this article, we conduct a variety of unit root tests on all possible N(N + 1)/2 real rates between pairs of the N + 1 countries and estimate the proportion of the pairs that are stationary. This proportion can be consistently estimated even in the presence of cross-section dependence. We estimate this proportion using quarterly data on the real exchange rate for 50 countries over the period 1957-2001. The main substantive conclusion is that to reject the null of no adjustment to PPP requires sufficiently large disequilibria to move the real rate out of the band of inaction set by trade costs. In such cases, one can reject the null of no adjustment to PPP up to 90% of the time as compared to around 40% in the whole sample using a linear alternative and almost 60% using a nonlinear alternative

Clustering and forecasting of dissolved oxygen concentration on a river basin

The aim of this contribution is to combine statistical methodologies to geographically classify homogeneous groups of water quality monitoring sites based on similarities in the temporal dynamics of the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration, in order to obtain accurate forecasts of this quality variable. Our methodology intends to classify the water quality monitoring sites into spatial homogeneous groups, based on the DO concentration, which has been selected and considered relevant to characterize the water quality. We apply clustering techniques based on Kullback Information, measures that are obtained in the state space modelling process. For each homogeneous group of water quality monitoring sites we model the DO concentration using linear and state space models, which incorporate tendency and seasonality components in different ways. Both approaches are compared by the mean squared error (MSE) of forecasts

New Insights into the mineralogy of the Atlantis II deep metalliferous sediments, Red Sea

The Atlantis II Deep of the Red Sea hosts the largest known hydrothermal ore deposit on the ocean floor and the only modern analog of brine pool-type metal deposition. The deposit consists mainly of chemical-clastic sediments with input from basin-scale hydrothermal and detrital sources. A characteristic feature is the millimeter-scale layering of the sediments, which bears a strong resemblance to banded iron formation (BIF). Quantitative assessment of the mineralogy based on relogging of archived cores, detailed petrography, and sequential leaching experiments shows that Fe-(oxy)hydroxides, hydrothermal carbonates, sulfides, and authigenic clays are the main “ore” minerals. Mn-oxides were mainly deposited when the brine pool was more oxidized than it is today, but detailed logging shows that Fe-deposition and Mn-deposition also alternated at the scale of individual laminae, reflecting short-term fluctuations in the Lower Brine. Previous studies underestimated the importance of nonsulfide metal-bearing components, which formed by metal adsorption onto poorly crystalline Si-Fe-OOH particles. During diagenesis, the crystallinity of all phases increased, and the fine layering of the sediment was enhanced. Within a few meters of burial (corresponding to a few thousand years of deposition), biogenic (Ca)-carbonate was dissolved, manganosiderite formed, and metals originally in poorly crystalline phases or in pore water were incorporated into diagenetic sulfides, clays, and Fe-oxides. Permeable layers with abundant radiolarian tests were the focus for late-stage hydrothermal alteration and replacement, including deposition of amorphous silica and enrichment in elements such as Ba and Au

Improvisation and Transformation: Yes to the Mess

The field of organizational change has chiefly been studied from a teleological perspective. Most models of change emphasize action that is rational and goal oriented. What often gets overlooked and under theorized is the continuous, iterative nature of organizational life, the unplanned and serendipitous actions by and between people that lead to new discoveries and innovation. Recent research on organizational improvisation seeks to explore this area. In this chapter we will address two questions – what is the experience of improvisation and what are the conditions that support improvisation to flourish in organizations? In the first part of this paper, we look at the phenomenology of improvisation, the actual lived experience of those who improvise in the face of the unknown or in the midst of chaotic conditions. We will explore the strategies that some professional improvisers employ to deliberately create the improvisatory moment. We will then look at the dynamics of organizational life and explore the cultural beliefs, organizational structures, and leadership practices that support improvisation. We will draw primarily upon the model from Barrett (2012) that focuses on the how the nature of jazz improvisation and the factors that support improvisation can be transferred to leadership activities. This falls in the tradition of others who draw upon arts-based metaphors, including jazz music and theatrical improvisation, to suggest insights for leadership and ways of organizing. Since this is a book devoted to individual transformation as well as organizational transformation, we will also touch on the topic of how improvisation is a developmental project and explore the potential for improvisation to lead to personal transformation. We will attempt to move back and forth between both themes – organizational and personal transformation. Ultimately the two topics are not separate. Any significant organizational transformation begins with an improvisation. And any meaningful improvisatory move by a person is potentially a moment of self-discovery and an identity-shaping event